India’s Evolving Population Story: From Numbers to Well-being

Every year on July 11, the world observes World Population Day to raise awareness about critical population issues. The global theme for 2025, “Empowering young people to create the families they want in a fair and hopeful world”, reminds us that sustainable development begins with people, especially youth. It urges governments and societies to invest in education, health, employment, and voluntary family planning services.

India, with its size, diversity, and unique policy legacy, stands at the centre of this global conversation. In 2023, India surpassed China to become the world’s most populous country, with 1.428 billion people. This demographic transition is not just a number; it reflects a deeper shift in how we think about population, rights, development, and sustainability.

India’s journey offers important lessons: from a control-oriented approach in the 1950s to a rights-based, empowerment-driven strategy in the 21st century. This transformation is crucial not only for India but also for other countries grappling with similar transitions.

Historical Legacy: From Control to Choice

India’s population policy has evolved significantly over the last seven decades. In 1952, India became the first country in the world to launch a national family planning programme. Early programmes focused heavily on limiting births, driven by fears of resource scarcity and poverty.

During the 1970s, especially in the Emergency period (1975–77), coercive sterilisation campaigns were carried out. These policies eroded public trust and led to serious violations of human rights. The harsh lessons of this era helped shape a gradual but firm shift away from coercion to voluntary and rights-based approaches.

By the time India adopted the National Population Policy in 2000, the focus had decisively shifted to reproductive autonomy, access to information, and choice of methods. This philosophical shift has played a central role in India achieving near-universal awareness of contraception (98.8%) and a sustained decline in fertility rates.

India’s Demographic Snapshot: Where We Stand

India's population growth rate slowed to +0.89% in 2023, compared to 2.3% in the 1970s and early 1980s. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is now 2.0, below the replacement level of 2.1, according to SRS 2020 and NFHS-5 data.

India also has one of the youngest populations in the world, with a median age of 29.5 years, far lower than China (39.8) or Japan (49.5). This demographic dividend can be a powerful force for growth and innovation if supported by proper systems and investments.

The sex ratio is improving. While the overall figure remains 1.06 males per female, the NFHS-5 reported 1,020 females per 1,000 males, showing progress in gender balance and reproductive rights. Life expectancy has risen to 72.03 years, and the infant mortality rate is down to 22.6 per 1,000 live births, signalling overall gains in public health.

 

 Urban-Rural Divide: A Challenge in Delivery

Despite national progress, sharp urban-rural disparities persist in reproductive health indicators. Access to skilled birth attendants, modern contraception, antenatal care, and adolescent counselling is often more limited in rural and tribal areas.

While urban centres benefit from private providers and multi-speciality hospitals, many rural areas rely solely on public health infrastructure that is under-resourced and understaffed. There is also a clear digital divide; urban youth are more likely to access online information on sexual and reproductive health, while rural youth face cultural taboos and poor connectivity.

Improving outreach through ASHA workers, telemedicine, and mobile health units is crucial for closing this gap and ensuring equity in reproductive rights.

From Growth to Stabilisation: A Quiet Revolution

India’s population doubled between 1975 and 2010, but now, the number of children is falling. The population of those under 15 peaked in 2011. These trends indicate a demographic turning point; India is on the path to stabilisation and eventual ageing.

Importantly, this shift happened without legal coercion or forced measures. Nearly 98.8% of men and women are aware of modern contraceptives. This is the result of decades of awareness campaigns, community outreach, and public health improvements. It shows that empowerment, not enforcement, leads to sustainable outcomes.

The Triple Nexus: Population, Environment, and Economy

India’s population density places heavy demands on natural resources like forests, freshwater, and coastal ecosystems. Urban expansion and industrialisation lead to pollution, congestion, and resource depletion. India has just 24 trees per person, and 8.2% of the fish stock is overfished.

There are serious infrastructure and social service gaps, especially in rural and underserved regions. While there is a large working-age population, unemployment, underemployment, and a dominant informal sector continue to limit progress.

These challenges must be addressed through coordinated policies that link the environment, economy, and population.

Unlocking the Demographic Dividend

India’s young population can drive economic prosperity, but only if we act now. The dividend depends on:

• Ensuring foundational education and digital literacy

• Expanding healthcare access to adolescents and young adults

• Providing vocational training and apprenticeships

• Creating safe workplaces, especially for women

• Addressing mental health and reproductive autonomy

Without strong policy support, India risks squandering this opportunity and facing a generation of disillusioned, underprepared youth.

 Role of Civil Society and Partnerships

India’s progress has been supported not only by government policies but also by the efforts of civil society organisations, community-based groups, and Panchayati Raj institutions. Women’s self-help groups and local NGOs have helped generate demand, reduce stigma, and improve contraceptive uptake in underserved areas.

These partnerships are particularly effective in tribal, migrant, and slum communities, where trust in formal systems is low. As we advance, scaling up collaboration with such groups is essential to increase the reach, sensitivity, and effectiveness of reproductive health programmes.

States Lead the Way

India is not homogeneous. Each state is at a different stage in its demographic transition. States like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh still have TFRs above replacement level. Meanwhile, Sikkim (1.1), Tamil Nadu (1.3), and West Bengal (1.4) are already below replacement levels.

This diversity demands tailored, state-specific responses. Some regions may still need to focus on access, awareness, and the delay of marriage. Others must prepare for an ageing population, with investments in elder care, pensions, and workforce automation.

Policies could include:

• Workplace crèches

• Parental leave, especially for fathers

• Incentives for second children in low-fertility states

• Support for elderly caregivers

Linking to SDGs: A Whole-of-Government Agenda

India’s population strategy directly supports several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs):

• SDG 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all

• SDG 5: Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls

• SDG 13: Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts

By focusing on rights-based family planning, youth development, and gender equity, India is also contributing to poverty reduction, nutrition improvement, and climate resilience. Mainstreaming the population in all policies, health, education, environment, and labour, is critical for achieving the 2030 Agenda.

Global Relevance: India as a Case Study

India’s experience in transitioning from a numbers-driven to a rights-based population strategy is being studied globally. Many low- and middle-income countries in Africa and South Asia face similar challenges of high fertility, youth bulge, and limited access to services.

India’s model, grounded in community participation, method mix, and respect for choice, offers a replicable framework. Its emphasis on empowerment over enforcement serves as a timely reminder that development must be people-centred and equitable.

Shaping the Narrative: Communication Still Matters

India has a long history of population communication strategies, from slogans like “3 or 2, that will do”, to campaigns using the Red Triangle.

Today, the focus is on behaviour change, especially in regions where myths, stigma, or lack of information still hinder contraceptive use. Using local languages, addressing concerns empathetically, and involving community influencers is key.

Posters asking “Why only a boy? Are these not girls?” have helped challenge gender bias. But more is needed, especially to counter digital misinformation and to build lasting trust.

Looking Ahead: A Rights-Based Roadmap

India’s demographic journey is entering a new phase. The path forward must include:

• Investing in youth education, skills, and health

• Promoting environmental sustainability

• Preparing for population ageing

• Adopting state-specific population policies

•  Strengthening inclusive communication

India’s shift from “population control” to population well-being is a story of hope, learning, and leadership. With continued commitment, India can ensure that every citizen, especially its youth, lives with dignity and contributes to a resilient, inclusive, and sustainable future.